Prediction as an Impediment to Preparedness: Lessons from the US Hurricane and Earthquake Research Enterprises     

Genevieve E. Maricle 《Minerva》2011,49(1):87-111

No matter one’s wealth or social position, all are subject to the threats of natural hazards. Be it fire, flood, hurricane, earthquake, tornado, or drought, the reality of hazard risk is universal. In response, governments, non-profits, and the private sector all support research to study hazards. Each has a common end in mind: to increase the resilience of vulnerable communities. While this end goal is shared across hazards, the conception of how to get there can diverge considerably. The earthquake and hurricane research endeavors in the US provide an illustrative contrast. The earthquake community sets out to increase resilience through a research process that simultaneously promotes both high quality and usable – preparedness-focused - science. In order to do so, the logic suggests that research must be collaborative, responsive, and transparent. Hurricane research, by contrast, largely promotes high quality science – predictions - alone, and presumes that usability should flow from there. This process is not collaborative, responsive, or transparent. Experience suggests, however, that the latter model – hurricane research - does not prepare communities or decision makers to use the high quality science it has produced when a storm does hit. The predictions are good, but they are not used effectively. Earthquake research, on the other hand, is developed through a collaborative process that equips decision makers to know and use hazards research knowledge as soon as an earthquake hits. The contrast between the two fields suggests that earthquake research is more likely to meet the end goal of resilience than is hurricane research, and thus that communities might be more resilient to hurricanes were the model by which research is funded and conducted to change. The earthquake research experience can provide lessons for this shift. This paper employs the Public Value Mapping (PVM) framework to explore these two divergent public value logics, their end results, and opportunities for improvement.  相似文献   

College Costs and Credit Cards: How Student Credit Card Use Influences College Degree Attainment     

Andrews  Benjamin D. 《Research in higher education》2021,62(6):885-913

Research in Higher Education - Since the turn of the twenty-first century, going to college has become increasingly financially difficult in the United States. Tuition prices continued to rise,...  相似文献   

Points from the SENCo-Forum     

K. Wedell 《British Journal of Special Education》2021,48(3):393-396

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The Coming of Age of the Academic Career: Differentiation and Professionalization of German Academic Positions from the 19th Century to the Present     

Cathelijn J. F. Waaijer 《Minerva》2015,53(1):43-67

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Sewer Augers     

Virginia E. Young 《College & Undergraduate Libraries》2015,22(2):229-230

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Identity work in the classrooms: Successful learning in urban schools     

Nathan N. Alexander 《Multicultural Perspectives》2016,18(4):237-239

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Why all scientists write in English     

Gross  Alan G. 《Metascience》2016,25(1):125-129

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Searching for momentum in NBA triplets of free throws     

Elia Morgulev  Ofer H. Azar  Michael Bar-Eli 《Journal of sports sciences》2020,38(4):390-398

ABSTRACT

The literature on momentum is still undecided, with mixed results whether momentum exists or is only perceived to exist (“hot hand fallacy”). We explore whether momentum exists by looking at cases in which a basketball player has three consecutive free throws. A free throw is a well-defined task executed in a stable environment, allegedly giving momentum optimal chances to occur. Taking 14 NBA seasons we collected over 4500 three-free-throw sets (triplets). We obtained the outcomes of the shots as well as some additional variables about the player and the game: the player’s average free-throw percentage, home or away, and the game score and the quarter when the free throws were attempted. We first analyse the hit rates in the three shots and then proceed to regression analysis that also controls for the abovementioned variables. We address several concerns raised in the literature. All comparisons and analyses yield the same conclusion that there is no evidence for momentum in the data.  相似文献   

Editorial     

Jon C. Giullian 《Slavic & East European Information Resources》2020,21(1-2):1-4

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Masked by Trust: Bias in Library Discovery     

Ellen K. Wilson 《Public Services Quarterly》2020,16(1):32-33

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